Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?
Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had "verbal approval" for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)
But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to trade with China. If, that is, lawsuits don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network already exist.
Although implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, several writers have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.
Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?
This question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.
"Commerical Operations" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.