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When will a hyperloop test reach 250 mph?
In May 2017, hyperloop development company Hyperloop One reported the first successful test of the new transportation system, sending a magnetically levitated sled through a near-vacuum. The top speed, 70 mph, is only a fraction of the target speed – around 760 mph, fast enough to travel from Los Angeles to San Francisco in 35 minutes.
Hyperloop's next targeted benchmark is to achieve a speed of 250 mph, just under half the speed of a commercial jet airliner.
When will a hyperloop test run achieve a speed of 250 mph?
This question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate announcement reports that a system of maglev propulsion in a near vacuum, at a scale intended for development into a passenger system, meets or exceeds 250 mph.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.