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Will at least one country in the world that will legislate a countrywide ban of selling on diesel or petrol cars by 2026?
Leading the charge, Scandinavian countries elected officials are planning to ban sales of cars with combustion engines in favor of electric vehicles as soon. In 2017, 52% of all new cars sales in Norway were of an electric vehicle making them the front runners to make this an official legitimate ban.
Article 1 - Nine countries say they will ban combustion engine cars https://qz.com/1341155/nine-countries-say-they-will-ban-internal-combustion-engines-none-have-a-law-to-do-so/
Article 2 - Denmark pledge to stop sales of electric vehicles https://www.reuters.com/article/us-denmark-autos/denmark-embraces-electric-car-revolution-with-petrol-and-diesel-ban-plan-idUSKCN1MC121
What are the chances that at least one country in the world will take the final step to officially ban sales of combustion engine cars by 2026? Note: This is an official ban, not incentive legislation that encourages stop of sales. The ban will only apply to cars and not other vehicles like trucks and airplanes.
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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.