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Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was a scheduled international passenger flight operated by Malaysia Airlines that disappeared on 8 March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia, to its destination, Beijing Capital International Airport in China. The disappearance of Flight 370 is considered one of the greatest aviation mysteries of all time.
The crew of the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft last communicated with air traffic control (ATC) around 38 minutes after takeoff when the flight was over the South China Sea. The aircraft was lost from ATC radar screens minutes later, but was tracked by military radar for another hour, deviating westwards from its planned flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and Andaman Sea. It left radar range 200 nautical miles (370 km) northwest of Penang Island in northwestern Malaysia.
With all 227 passengers and 12 crew aboard presumed dead, the disappearance of Flight 370 was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and the deadliest incident of Malaysia Airlines' history, until it was surpassed in both regards by Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 four months later. The combined loss caused significant financial problems for Malaysia Airlines, which was renationalised by the Malaysian government in December 2014.
The search for the missing airplane became the most costly in aviation history. Several pieces of marine debris confirmed to be from the aircraft washed ashore in the western Indian Ocean during 2015 and 2016, but after a three-year search across 120,000 square kilometres (46,000 sq mi) of ocean failed to locate the aircraft, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre heading the operation suspended their activities in January 2017. A second search launched in January 2018 by the private contractor Ocean Infinity also ended without success after six months.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2020, will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found?
This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2020 credible media reports indicate that substantially all or a major part of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found and positively identified.
'Major parts' shall include largely intact engines, wings, cockpit voice or data recorders, the fuselage, or a debris field containing a large number of fragments identified as parts of MH370.
Small plane parts not connected to a larger find (for example, like the flaperons found washed up on Reunion) shall not suffice; nor will pieces of luggage.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.