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When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?
Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the second leading cause of death (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.
Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) (all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.).
When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?
Positive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and races in the U.S.
- % 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer,
- % 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer,
- % 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer,
- % 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer,
- % 5-year survival rates for liver cancer,
- % 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer,
as reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.
Historical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in Our World in Data.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.