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Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?
When unveiling Model 3 in 2016 Musk was promising "well of course it'll be $35,000", but since then Tesla has struggled to deliver.
Recently, during the conference call for Tesla’s third quarter financial results Musk was saying:
If we could produce a $35,000 car today, we would do it. We need more work, there is more work to do before in order to make a $35,000 car and have it be positive gross margin. We’re probably less than six months from that. That’s our mission.
The same sentiment was reiterated in the "Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update" document.
We all know that Musk time works differently, probably already in Martian Years, so the question asks:
Will Tesla deliver first new $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?
In order for this question to resolve positively there needs to be a report that the first $35,000 Model 3 was deliver to a customer before midnight of the last day of 2019. The car must be new and the price reported on tesla.com for United States must be $35,000 or less before savings. In other words the price must not include potential incentives and gas savings. See the screenshot.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.