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In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
Although far from human level in many respects, artificially intelligent (AI) systems and autonomous agents of greatly increasing sophistication are entering society in the form of, for example, automated trading, autonomous vehicles, robots, and autonomous weapons.
Such systems are beginning to make "decisions" that could save or cost human lives. For example:
Recently, an industrial robot in Germany, through a programming error, fatally injured factory worker.
Autonomous vehicles are likely to save many lives as compared to human drivers, but could in principle malfunction, or in rare cases be forced to "choose" to injure one person in order to save others (a real-life version of the philosophical trolley problem.)
Autonomous weapons engineered to to choose and engage targets without human intervention exist, and although they are (presently, formally) eschewed by most militaries, seem likely to be deployed in coming years unless prevented by international agreement.
By March 1, 2016, will one of the top 25 news outlets by media traffic publish a story reporting that a "robot", "autonomous" system, or "AI" system, though an error or "choice", or failure to act appropriately, has directly caused physical harm to come to a human?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.