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Will we find the remains of missing Malaysia Air flight 370 by summer's end?
But although initial search and rescue (and later, recovery) efforts failed, many have not abandoned hope. Ocean Infinity, for instance, is still on the case. On June 4, the Norwegian ship Seabed Constructor headed into terra incognito:
Over the past few days, the ship has been searching an area of the southern Indian Ocean where Chinese navy ship Haixun 01 detected a suspected black box “ping” less than a month after the plane vanished on March 8, 2014.
This article by the BBC paints a bleak picture of the search effort. So it seems unlikely that there will be a breakthrough, especially in the next few months. Then again, Black Swan events (and their converse) are rarely predictable.
Question resolves positive if credible media reports indicate that search efforts have found unambiguous evidence of the missing plane by September 22, 2018 (last day of summer).
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.